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亚化咨询:国家清洁油品升级战略下地炼企业的机遇与挑战

 当前,城市雾霾问题受到重点关注,中央政府正大力推进清洁油品升级,即降低汽柴油中硫、烯烃、芳烃的含量。20155月,国家发改委等七部门发布《加快成品油质量升级工作方案》,明确要求自201611日起,东部11省市全面供应国五标准的车用汽柴油201711日起,全国全面供应国V标准的车用汽柴油2018 日起,全国普通柴油的硫含量达到国V标准。并要求在2019年开始实施国VI标准。

V汽柴油含硫量不大于10ppm,比国IV标准硫含量降低80%。汽油升级重点是催化汽油深度脱硫和增产高辛烷值组分。柴油升级重点方向是深度加氢脱硫和改质。2016年,预计东部地区国V标准车用汽油需求6400万吨,车用柴油5310万吨。2017年全国车用汽油需求12900万吨、车用柴油12110万吨。2018年国V标准普通柴油需求约5200万吨。

 

根据《山东地方炼化产业转型升级实施方案2014》,柴油在201511日前达到国Ⅳ标准,汽油和柴油在20179月底前达到国Ⅴ标准。

《山东地方炼化产业转型升级实施方案2014》目标

 

2017

2020

一次加工能力

< 1 亿吨/

~ 1 亿吨/

加工量

6000 万吨

7500 万吨

汽柴油产量

3500 万吨

5000 万吨

缩减落后产能

1200 万吨

----

地炼平均规模

450 万吨/

500 万吨/

综合能耗

63千克标油/

60千克标油/

乙烯产量

----

100 万吨

芳烃产量

----

100 万吨

 

地炼企业要做强做大,需要进行原料和产品结构优化、加强销售网络建设、实施兼并联合等。国内地炼龙头企业东明石化已经率先尝试。20153月,东明石化与卡塔尔投资发展集团(QID Group)和哈马德·本·苏海姆(Hamad Bin Suhaim)企业集团签署初步协议,以50亿美元出让东明石化49%的权益。资金将用于东明石化菏泽炼油厂方圆300公里范围内的6个省份建立并运营1000家加油()站;在广西钦州地区建设一座300万吨LNG接收终端等

 

亚化咨询认为,随着国家清洁油品升级战略的加速,山东地炼企业的升级改造必须比原计划提前进行。对地炼企业而言,机遇是未来清洁油品市场广阔;挑战是产业升级需要大量资金投入。在油价相对低迷,炼油行业盈利状况不佳的情况下,清洁油品标准,将成为中小地炼企业必须面对的一个门槛。

 

由亚化咨询主办的首届中国清洁油品技术经济研讨会将于2015730-31日在青岛召开。重点探讨国家政策和清洁油品升级方向;中国未来清洁汽柴油的市场展望;中低油价背景下清洁油品升级改造技术经济分析;新建炼油装置和炼厂扩能规划;煤(甲醇)制清洁汽柴油的技术与项目进展;先进低成本制氢技术与应用;催化裂化、加氢、脱硫技术进展;异辛烷项目投资与环保型异辛烷生产技术;炼油厂环保与节能减排方案;替代燃料的竞争性分析等。

 

 

 

 

Chances & Challenges: Local refineries & national oil products upgrading program

 

Currently, urban smog problem is concerned by public, the central government is vigorously promoting oil products upgrading for cleaner fuels, namely to reduce the sulfur, olefins, aromatics contents of gasoline and diesel. In May 2015, NDRC and other 6 ministries issued <To speed up the refined oil products quality upgrading program>, which requires the 11 provinces in east China to supply China V (CN-V) standard vehicles used gasoline and diesel since Jan. 1, 2016; and to supply CN-V standard vehicles used gasoline nationwide since Jan. 1, 2017. Since Jan.1, 2018, the sulfur content of ordinary diesel will reach CN-V standard. And since 2019, begin to implement the CN-VI standard.

 

CN-V gasoline and diesel requires sulfur content not more than 10ppm, an 80% decrease than the CN-IV standard. The key points of gasoline upgrading are deep desulfurization and increase of high octane components; diesel upgrading are deep hydro-desulfurization and quality modification. In 2016, the east China’s demand for CN-V standard motor used gasoline will be 64 Mt; motor used diesel 53.1 Mt. In 2017, nationwide demand is expected at 129 Mt of motor used gasoline, and motor used diesel 121.1 Mt. In 2018, CN-V standard ordinary diesel demand will be about 52 Mt.

 

According to "Shandong local refinery industry upgrading program 2014", diesel should reach CN-IV standard before January 1, 2015; gasoline and diesel reach CN-V standard before the end of September 2017.

 

Target of <Shandong local refinery industry upgrading program 2014>

 

2017

2020

Processing capacity

< 100 Mt/a

~ 100 Mt/a

Processing amount

60 Mt

75 Mt

Gasoline & diesel output

35 Mt

50 Mt

Backward capacity reduction

12 Mt

----

Average scale

4.5 Mt/a

5 Mt/a

Comprehensive energy consumption

63 kgeo/t

60 kgeo/t

Ethylene production

----

1 Mt

Aromatics production

----

1 Mt

 

Refining enterprises to be bigger and stronger, the raw materials and products structure optimization, strengthening the sales network construction, and the implementation of merger, consolidation and so on are necessary. Domestic leading refiner – Dongming Petrochemical has initiated its first attempt. In March 2015, Dongming Petrochemical and Qatra Investment Development Group (QID Group) and Hamad Bin SuhaimEnterprise Group signed a preliminary agreement to sell a 49% stakes of Dongming Petrochemical worth $ 5 billion, for building 1,000 petrol stations across six provinces, a 300-kilometre radius of the company’s Heze refinery in Shandong province in eastern China, and a liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal with a 3 Mt/a in the region of Qinzhou, Guangxi Province.

 

ASIACHEM believes that with the acceleration of national cleaner oil upgrading strategy, the upgrading of local refiners must be ahead of their former schedule. To refining companies, the opportunity is vast clean fuel market in the future; while the challenge is industrial upgrading require significant capital investment. At relatively low prices, poor profitability of the oil refining industry, the cleaner oil standard, will become a threshold for small & middle refining companies must be faced.

 

China Oil Products Upgrading Conference 2015 will be organized by ASIACHEM in Qingdao July 30-31. The upcoming conference will discuss policy for cleaner fuels & oil products upgrading trends ; China's clean gasoline & diesel market outlook; techno-economics of oil products upgrading under mid-low oil prices; new refineries & the refining expansion projects; coal (methanol) based clean fuels; advanced low-cost hydrogen technologies & application; catalytic cracking, hydrogenation, desulfurization technologies advances; iso-octane projects & environmentally friendly iso-octane technologies; refineries environmental protection & energy conservation solutions ; competitive analysis of other alternative fuels.


 
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